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Throughout the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Viktor Orbán stood out as the only EU chief to endorse the Republican candidate. This support was expected, in light of Mr Orbán's embrace of divisive ideas including population replacement concept and his crackdowns on journalistic liberties. Analysts observe that Hungary's premier more or less pioneered the Maga movement, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon once praising Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Electoral Support Before Hungarian Elections

Last week, with key votes in Hungary only six months away, Donald Trump offered electoral assistance. As Mr Orbán aims for a fifth term in office governing a country he calls an illiberal democracy, his ruling party currently trails in the polls. A meeting to the US capital resulted in not just Trump campaign souvenirs; it brought far more significant campaign boosts.

Waivers and Financial Shields

Even though previously admonishing European nations on the imperative to eliminate all energy imports from the Russian Federation, and warning of sanctions against states persisting to import Russian energy, Mr Trump approved to allow a special exemption for Hungary – the biggest user in the EU of Russian crude. As Orbán stated, the Trump administration also pledged to offer a economic protection to Budapest should it runs into any later issues, particularly since Brussels persists in holding back billions in EU funding to Hungary due to rule-of-law breaches.

The particulars of this agreement seem vague. Yet the US president illustrated his willingness to support like-minded partners after the America granted a $20bn emergency credit line to the Argentine leader, Javier Milei. While the Hungarian PM failed to obtain a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, the Washington talks nevertheless was a successful endeavor.

Brussels' Worries and International Implications

In the corridors of the EU, Trump's actions will have highlighted the geopolitical stakes of the upcoming vote, before which the centrist challenger, Magyar, enjoys a solid advantage in the polls. EU chiefs know not to anticipate steady principles from the Trump administration, and are familiar with the American leader's attempts to undermine the EU. But the special treatment for Orbán – secured through an pledge to purchase American natural gas and nuclear power – blatantly weakens the bloc's aims to eliminate imports of Russian energy by the year 2027.

• Since 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian petroleum, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have funneled substantial funds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Simultaneously, the Hungarian government has often employed the threat of its veto to impede moves in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• As the EU attempts to forge a unified and effective strategy for aiding the Ukrainian government, and strengthening its hand in any future peace negotiations, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the negotiating table remains a significant obstacle.

Rival's Approach

Péter Magyar has avoided promising a major policy shift on the war in Ukraine, and centered his campaign on domestic issues, while highlighting the need for Hungary to finally behave as a positive member state. After enduring so many years of trolling, Brussels can only hold out hope. Orbán's disregard to basic EU values, such as the protection of minority groups and the independence of civil society institutions, has persisted as a source of shame for the European Union. His ongoing blocking tactics regarding Ukraine threatens to weaken its long-term safety.